Where your tax goes

What's planned for the next few years?

Spending is forecast to exceed revenue every year to 2030-31. That year's forecast is HK$913.6 billion in spending and HK$875.1 billion in revenue, with borrowing covering the gap. p.7

Spending is forecast to exceed revenue every year to 2030-31

Government revenue and expenditure, consolidated account, HK$ billion. Solid lines: actual. Dashed: the 2026-27 estimate and the forecast after it.

Revenue excludes bond proceeds; reserves also covered part of the gap in earlier years. SourcesConsolidated summary, p.3Official document, p.2Government press release, webBudget Appendix A, p.7

Show every year as a table

Government revenue, spending and reserves SourcesConsolidated summary, p.3Official document, p.2Official document, p.1Government press release, webBudget Appendix A, p.7

This year's estimate comes first. Expanded amounts are HK$ million. Negative figures are deficits; a dash means no figure is published.

YearRevenueSpendingBalance before bondsBonds issuedBonds repaidBalance after bondsReserves
2026-27EstimateHK$765.2bn765,234HK$843.4bn843,416−HK$78.2bn−78,182HK$160.0bn160,000HK$59.7bn59,708HK$22.1bn22,110HK$679.3bn679,332
2021-22ActualHK$693.6bn693,576HK$693.3bn693,339HK$237m237HK$29.1bn29,124—HK$29.4bn29,361HK$957.1bn957,128
2022-23ActualHK$622.1bn622,147HK$810.5bn810,477−HK$188.3bn−188,330HK$66.0bn65,992—−HK$122.3bn−122,338HK$834.8bn834,790
2023-24ActualHK$549.4bn549,406HK$721.3bn721,301−HK$171.9bn−171,895HK$72.5bn72,490HK$800m800−HK$100.2bn−100,205HK$734.6bn734,585
2024-25ActualHK$564.9bn564,908.9HK$753.2bn753,220.6−HK$188.3bn−188,311.7HK$130.0bn130,036.0HK$22.0bn21,993.0−HK$80.3bn−80,268.6HK$654.3bn654,316.8
2025-26Provisional actualHK$697.5bn697,468.5HK$790.3bn790,330.2−HK$92.9bn−92,861.7HK$156.0bn156,036.4HK$52.0bn51,950.9HK$11.2bn11,223.8HK$665.5bn665,540.6
2027-28ForecastHK$794.5bn794,456HK$866.6bn866,602−HK$72.1bn−72,146HK$210.0bn210,000HK$129.9bn129,923HK$7.9bn7,931HK$687.3bn687,263
2028-29ForecastHK$765.8bn765,797HK$871.9bn871,863−HK$106.1bn−106,066HK$220.0bn220,000HK$103.3bn103,307HK$10.6bn10,627HK$697.9bn697,890
2029-30ForecastHK$819.7bn819,741HK$890.8bn890,799−HK$71.1bn−71,058HK$190.0bn190,000HK$101.6bn101,571HK$17.4bn17,371HK$715.3bn715,261
2030-31ForecastHK$875.1bn875,148HK$913.6bn913,606−HK$38.5bn−38,458HK$190.0bn190,000HK$133.1bn133,148HK$18.4bn18,394HK$733.7bn733,655

Provisional reserves differ from the forecast's starting point; see the reserves detail below.

What happens to the reserves?

Fiscal reserves are the Government's savings, growing with a surplus and shrinking with a deficit.

Reserves are forecast to stay at about 10 months of spending p.7

Fiscal reserves at 31 March each year, HK$ billion. Solid line: actual. Dashed: estimate and forecast.

Reserves fell from HK$957.1 billion at the end of 2021-22 p.3 to HK$654.3 billion at the end of 2024-25 p.1. As a share of GDP they are forecast to fall from 19.5% to 17.3% p.7.

For 2025-26 this shows the Budget's February revised estimate, HK$657.2 billion p.7, because the 2026-27 estimate and the forecasts start from it. The provisional outturn, published in April 2026, was HK$665.5 billion web.

Show reserves for every year as a table

Fiscal reserves at 31 March SourcesConsolidated summary, p.3Official document, p.1Budget Appendix A, p.7

YearReservesMonths of spendingShare of GDP
2026-27EstimateHK$679.3bn679,3321019.5%
2021-22ActualHK$957.1bn957,128——
2022-23ActualHK$834.8bn834,790——
2023-24ActualHK$734.6bn734,585——
2024-25ActualHK$654.3bn654,316.8——
2025-26Revised estimateHK$657.2bn657,2221019.7%
2027-28ForecastHK$687.3bn687,2631018.8%
2028-29ForecastHK$697.9bn697,8901018.1%
2029-30ForecastHK$715.3bn715,2611017.7%
2030-31ForecastHK$733.7bn733,6551017.3%

What does the forecast assume?

Assumptions about growth, land, tax and spending

The economy

From 2027-28 onwards, the revenue forecast basically reflects each revenue source's trend yield. Budget Appendix A, p.6

Real GDP growth, 2026 Estimate
2.5% to 3.5% p.115
Nominal GDP growth, 2026 Estimate
4.2% to 5.2% p.115
Rise in the GDP deflator (prices), 2026 Estimate
1.7% p.115
Real growth each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
3% p.6
GDP deflator each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
2% p.6
Nominal growth each year, 2027 to 2030 (trend) Forecast
5% p.6
Nominal GDP, 2026 → 2030 Forecast
HK$3,488.4 billion → HK$4,240.1 billion p.11
Government spending as a share of GDP, 2026-27 → 2030-31 Forecast
24.2% → 21.5% p.91 p.96

Revenue

Day-to-day budget in surplus, building works borrowed for

The forecast splits the Government's accounts in two. The operating account covers day-to-day spending such as salaries, welfare and public services. The capital account covers building works and other investment, and is where government bonds are counted. The operating account is forecast to be in surplus every year; the capital account stays in deficit, and bonds fill the gap.

Operating and capital accounts, from 2026-27 p.7

YearOperatingCapitalOverall
2026-27EstimateHK$11.9bn11,910−HK$90.1bn−90,092−HK$78.2bn−78,182
2027-28ForecastHK$26.4bn26,442−HK$98.6bn−98,588−HK$72.1bn−72,146
2028-29ForecastHK$41.2bn41,197−HK$147.3bn−147,263−HK$106.1bn−106,066
2029-30ForecastHK$52.2bn52,162−HK$123.2bn−123,220−HK$71.1bn−71,058
2030-31ForecastHK$68.9bn68,870−HK$107.3bn−107,328−HK$38.5bn−38,458

How will next year's spending be split?

The 2027-28 spending forecast is HK$866.6 billion, +2.7% above this year's estimate (our calculation). p.7

The forecast gives totals, without a split for health, education, welfare or other areas. This site uses the 2026-27 spending shares.

See your tax breakdown for this year